CNN reports:
American Catholics are very enthusiastic about the choice of Pope Francis to head the Roman Catholic Church, according to a new national survey.
But a CNN/ORC International survey also indicates that you shouldn’t expect them to pay any more attention to the new pope’s teachings on issues like birth control than they paid to his predecessors. “Pope Francis is starting off with a huge reservoir of goodwill in the U.S. ” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
Read the rest here.
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A few observations on the polling data itself (link to PDF):
1) Out of 1,021 people, they could only find 190 Catholics. Really? Only 18.6% of respondents were Catholic in a country that, according to Pew, is around 24% Catholic?
2) The survey has a +/- 7% sampling error, which strikes me as quite high, and raises the question of how useful it ultimately is.
3) There is no breakdown of either self-described weak/strong Catholic affiliation or Mass attendance for the 190 Catholics, which is a shame – for me, that’s usually one of the more interesting factors to consider in surveys. Neither is there any age breakdown, which would also have been interesting.
4) Given the percentages of some of the other questions asked in the survey, and the content thus far of Pope Francis’s homilies, I give it 6 months maximum before his “approval rating” comes down significantly. And that may be no bad thing.
Don’t like the message, blame the messenger?
awr
@Matthew Hazell – comment #1:
You would rather have American Catholics hate the Pope from the beginning of his reign than at least show goodwill for his election? Have you been in correspondence with Jansenius recently? Last time I checked, none of the faithful are reprobate.
@Fr Ruff: I never said I didn’t like the message (whether I like it or not is immaterial). I’m just saying that the message may not be all that reliable or useful, given the underlying constraints.
@Jordan Zarembo: Erm, no, I haven’t been in touch with Jansenius, and who mentioned anything about reprobation??? I confess, I’m a little bemused at your over-reaction.
Ultimately, whether American Catholics “approve” or “disapprove” of the Pope is up to them individually. All I said was that in six months, fewer American Catholics will “approve” of Pope Francis. That’s just my opinion, though, and I’ll be more than happy to be proved wrong – but the backlash is coming, and it won’t be too long before it’s made clear that reform of the irreformable (e.g. Humanae Vitae, Ordinatio Sacerdotalis) won’t be happening in this papacy or any other.
OK, then I misread your nitpicking at the poll and trying to discredit it.
awr
@Matthew Hazell – comment #4:
The backlash is already upon us, but it seems to be found among the self-styled “faithful” Catholics. They don’t seem to taken well to the perception of brushing aside certain liturgical practices and fads. And many others are taking great trouble to spin the new pope to their liking.
As for the matter of positions on sex and sex-related issues–that’s never been a dealbreaker for Catholics in their assessment of “approval” of a person. It’s more frequently been how this is framed in the public sphere. Mother Teresa, for example, gave an unquestioned witness of compassion. Paul Ryan, for example, not so much, perhaps.
@Todd Flowerday: The backlash is already upon us, but it seems to be found among the self-styled “faithful” Catholics.
Don’t worry, the backlash will spread. (I suppose in 6 months we’ll see if my entrail-reading skills are any good!) 🙂
I think this approval rating is wonderful news, and I would guess that if they had a larger sample, the percentage would have been even higher!
The goodwill that the new pope has managed to generate within one week of his election is stupendous. It may well decline. But that’s no reason not to delight today in the favorable reception Catholics have accorded the new pope. Like it or not, the goodwill of the people assists in evangelization and support of the Church as an institution.
Eighty-eight percent of American Catholics questioned in our survey approve of his selection as pope,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
Matthew: Out of 1,021 people, they could only find 190 Catholics. Really? Only 18.6% of respondents were Catholic in a country that, according to Pew, is around 24% Catholic? The survey has a +/- 7% sampling error, which strikes me as quite high, and raises the question of how useful it ultimately is.
Rita: I think this approval rating is wonderful news, and I would guess that if they had a larger sample, the percentage would have been even higher!
Since there is a +/- 7% sampling error, the “real” percentage of Catholics in a larger and therefore more accurate poll could have been 26% or 11%. There is no reason to assume this study is getting the percentage of Catholics wrong.
The percentage of Catholics approving of Francis selection could have been 95% or 81%. In either case it would be greater than the only 60% of Americans Catholics who approved of the selection of Pope Benedict, the predecessor to Francis. Given that Francis “real” number is at least 81%, a most likely case of 88% and a best possible case 95%, he has totally outdistanced Benedict.
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